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Monday, 28 October 2013

Carbon pricing versus direct action


Australia’s carbon tax has copped an enormous amount of flak since even before it was implemented in July 2012.

Intense criticism by those against it, and poor efforts to defend it by those who support it, have left most Australians believing that it is highly expensive and largely ineffective.

The focus on the carbon tax has muddied the path we were on, which in my view is the right one: putting a price on carbon.

In fact, most Australians don’t know it, but the carbon tax was only ever intended as a transitional arrangement before moving to an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

The recently elected Australian Liberal federal government – which has led the criticism against the carbon tax – has come up with a Direct Action Policy to replace carbon pricing.

In its first step towards implementing the new policy, the government has introduced legislation into Parliament to repeal the carbon tax. The final date for submissions on the carbon tax repeal bills is 5pm (AEST), next Monday 4 November 2013.

To help people who may want to make a submission, I’ve been researching the options. This week my posts will focus on why carbon pricing is the path Australia should continue to follow.

How the schemes work

The carbon tax

Under the carbon tax, the top polluting companies must pay a ‘fixed’ price for every tonne of greenhouse gases they emit. Presently that amount is $24.15.

Only the biggest 500 polluting companies pay the carbon tax. You and I don’t pay the tax directly, but the effects can flow through to the goods and services we buy.

The carbon price is premised on a simple idea about human behaviour: if you have to pay for something, you’ll be more careful about how you use it.

It’s very difficult to find statistical information on the effectiveness of the carbon tax. What has been reported is that in the first six months under the carbon tax emissions from the electricity sector dived, with much greater use of renewable energy and cutbacks in consumption.

In any event, its effectiveness is somewhat of a moot point as it was only ever a transitional arrangement before moving to an ETS that would actually cap pollution.

The carbon tax has received an enormous amount of criticism regarding its impact on household bills. But this appears to be unjustified. Hugh Saddler, a principal consultant for energy analysts Pitt & Sherry, said it had been ''almost impossible'' to see the carbon price footprint when it was introduced, and it would be no easier if it was removed. The Australian Bureau of Statistics agreed.

Not only that, a recent report has shown that scrapping the carbon tax is actually likely to increase electricity bills. The reason for this is because some of the proceeds the government had received from the carbon tax have been put towards renewable energy. Renewable energy has become far more efficient and cost effective, and now represents a very low-cost form of energy that displaces other fossil fuel generators, which have very high fuel costs. In fact, renewable energy, when it’s put onto the system, tends to cut household electricity bills, not push them up.

The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)

It had always been intended by the previous government that the fixed price carbon tax would move to an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

A trading scheme places a cap on emissions and requires big emitters to buy a permit for every tonne of carbon dioxide they release. Permits can be traded, allowing businesses that cut emissions to save money.

The price of carbon would be set by the market under an ETS, and is therefore likely to go down.

The ETS is designed to link to international carbon markets. In other words, companies would be able to buy and sell permits in the international market if they wanted to do so. Currently, more than 30 other countries have carbon pricing schemes. This figure does not include state schemes like those in California and some Chinese provinces.

The benefits of the ETS are clear. It sets a cap on pollution; it’s flexible, as the pollution cap can be altered if our emission targets change; it is set by the market and it can be linked to international carbon markets. In my view, this is the route we should continue to take.

How direct action works

Under the proposed Direct Action Policy, polluters are paid to reduce their pollution. The Government will institute incentives for businesses, farmers, households and other entities to invest in technologies that will reduce our emissions.
The details of the policy are very vague. The Government has produced a White Paper on The Emissions Reduction Fund, which is the centrepiece of the Australian Government’s Direct Action Plan. The White Paper contains little detail.
What is clear however, is that with direct action there is no price on carbon and there is no limit on pollution. The cap is on spending, not emissions.
The payments will come out of a newly established Emissions Reduction Fund comprising taxpayers’ money. The costs of the ERF will be capped at $300 million (2014-15), $500 million (2015-16) and $750 million (2016-17) over the forward estimates.

The money budgeted for the policy is based on a target of reducing Australia's domestic emissions by 5 per cent by 2020.

However, modelling by Sinclair Knight Merz/MMA for The Climate Institute found the Coalition would have to find at least another $4 billion for its climate policy or else break its pledge to cut emissions by 5% by 2020 and instead allow them to increase by 9%.
Modelling by Reputex climate analytics, commissioned by the environment group WWF-Australia, found the Coalition funding would fall short by $5.9 billion a year between 2015 and 2020, or between $20 billion and $35 billion in total.
Australia has previously committed to higher emissions targets if there is a commitment for stronger action by the international community, which is possible at the 2015 UN Conference on Climate Change. Given how much money is required by direct action to enable us to just meet our 5% targets, it is unlikely direct action would enable us to meet these higher targets, or indeed even our existing target.

Direct action also delivers disruption and uncertainty to an industry that’s already adapted to the concept of carbon pricing.
Is Direct action the right course of action for Australia? According to many leading economists it is not. A Fairfax Media survey released today of 35 prominent university and business economists found only two believed direct action was the better way to limit Australia's greenhouse gas emissions.

Of the two economists that supported direct action, one described it as "no action", which he felt was the right path to take for Australia. The other economist, from Commsec, was skeptical whether humans were having a serious impact on climate.

Thirty – or 86% – of the economists surveyed favored the existing carbon price scheme. Three rejected both schemes.

Internationally renowned Australian economist Justin Wolfers, of the Washington based Brookings Institution and the University of Michigan, has expressed surprise that any economists would opt for direct action. He has said that direct action would involve more economic disruption but have a lesser environmental pay-off than an emissions trading scheme.

Direct action a more expensive way of doing much less

It’s incredibly disappointing that political debate over a transitional arrangement – the carbon tax – has gotten in the way of our move to an Emissions Trading Scheme. 

When comparing carbon pricing against direct action, carbon pricing wins hands down.

In fact, direct action is just a much more expensive way of doing much less.


Useful links:

Repealing the Carbon Tax – Call for public comment

Emissions Reduction Fund - Call for public comment

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